Sunday, May 12, 2019

Today we have how to innovate in bets, a view on the M&A market from the chief strategy officer at Goldman Sachs, the man who pioneered the Outsourced Chief Investment Officer, and the state of sports gambling.

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Business

  • a16z Podcast: Innovating in Bets. Annie Duke has been on a lot of podcasts in the last year or so, but this was great to hear her discuss some of the topics from her books (Thinking In Bets) with Marc Andreessen. She starts the episode with the story she begins her book with: Pete Carroll and the Seahawks playing the Patriots (and losing) in the Super Bowl. She explains Pete Caroll was judged because the Seahawks threw an interception and lost the game, but goes on to explain we why can’t judge decisions based on outcomes (what she calls resulting). They go on to discuss how our society has become way too results oriented and has a tendency to view someone trying something new as either a visionary or lunatic. Andreessen explains how his firm tries to counteract this tendency and look back at what deals they passed on (they pass on 99/100 deals). Duke suggests we view our decisions from our future self, which both can help us realize we may overestimate the gravity of the decision in the moment and also help us view the decision from a different viewpoint. Finally, she wraps with a study that showed people who positively fantasize about a goal perform worse than people who negatively fantasize about the same goal. [May 8, 2019–46 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Stitcher | Website Link
  • Capital Allocators: Jon Hirtle — The Pioneer of OCIO. Something that has become more prevalent recently is the outsourced OCIO. Hirtile is credited with initiating the Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) model and is now the Chairman of Hirtle, Callaghan & Co., a $20 billion Outsourced CIO business. He starts the episode with his journey from the marines to Goldman Sachs to starting his firm in 1988. His goal is to take the advantage of a multi-billion dollar independent office and deliver it to a college with a $200 million college endowment. He discusses the nuances with customizing portfolios for different clients while having the same themes throughout their portfolio (all his clients are long EM). He also discusses a variety of other topics: corporate governance, private equity, using factors to improve performance, and his 13-F strategy. [May 6, 2019–56 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Stitcher | Website Link
  • Masters in Business: Ivy Zelman Discusses Real Estate. This was a really interesting conversation on the U.S. housing market. Zelman is the founder of Zelman & Associates LLC, a research and investment firm focused on the housing market. The episode begins with Zelman explaining why she was negative on the sector from 2003–2005 — specifically because home builders were paying too much for land at the time. Housing stocks proceeded to fall 40%, and then she wrote another note called “10 Reasons To Sell Home Building Stocks” in December 2006. At the 23 minute mark, the conversation turns to the current state of the housing market, which she thinks is healthy and we can expect some moderation in home prices going forward (national inventory is at a 30 year low). She also explains how the upscale market (Greenwich, CT and NYC) is not doing well, while markets like Arizona, Florida, and Las Vegas are very strong. They wrap the episode with her thoughts on iBuyers (Opendoor) and Zillow’s pivot to start flipping houses. [May 3, 2019–1 hour, 5 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Stitcher | Website Link
  • Invest Like The Best: Stephanie Cohen — The Evolution of M&A and Corporate Strategy. Cohen is the chief strategy officer for Goldman Sachs and discusses M&A in general and her job at Goldman in this episode. She begins with the most difficult deal she’s worked on (Fiat-Chrysler) and how it was great to both keep jobs for Americans and give the government a return on their investment. Then she gives an overview of factors contributing to M&A from both the buyer and sellers perspective, how Goldman created its’ own way to bubble up best ideas and fund them (like a mini Y-Combinator), and her view of fintech from both an M&A perspective and the perspective of being a Goldman employee. [May 7, 2019–55 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Stitcher | Website Link
  • The Sherman Show: 9. S5 E9: David Zervos, CIO — Jefferies. Zervos provides a very unique perspective: he’s gone from electrical engineering to the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and hedge funds before winding up at Jefferies. This is a very technical episode, as they talk about his time at the Fed during the financial crisis, inflation, US market history, his impression of Jay Powell, risk parity and more. [May 3, 2019–1 hour] iTunes Podcast | Overcast | Website Link
  • Recode Media with Peter Kafka: Digital media pioneer Jason Hirschhorn on Netflix vs. Everyone Else. There aren’t many industries experiencing as much change as the media industry right now. Redef CEO Jason Hischhorn touches on a lot of what’s going on: Disney’s new offering, Netflix, AT&T and HBO’s relationship and the recent departure of HBO executives, streaming services competing with video games, an update on Hulu with their recent ownership change as Disney purchased a large stake (valuing it at $15 billion), and comparing prices for all the services. [May 7, 2019–1 hour, 3 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Stitcher | Website Link

Sports

  • The Business of Sports with Andrew Brandt: RTAB #143: The Moorad Symposium. The legalization of sports gambling is definitely going to be a sensitive and tricky topic going forward and a lot of the issues are covered in this episode. This is a recording of a symposium at Villanova University on data, gambling, and the privacy of athletes. The panel included Darren Rovell (The Action Network), Michele Roberts (Director of the NBA Player’s Association), Adam Berger (Sports Betting Expert), and Jeffrey Moorad (former MLB agent and team owner). The conversation begins at the 8:00 minute mark and begins by explaining the current state of sports gambling — states now have the right to legalize it, 10 have done so, 20 are considering it, and they think 25–40 states will have it legalized in 5–10 years. They touch on issues professional teams will face once it is legalized — how does the NBA handle a team losing because of a missed call at the end of the game and the leagues post-game report admits the call was missed the next day, and what happens when Lebron James plays in the finals with a broken hand and no one knows while gambling? They also touch on how American attitudes towards gambling have changed over the years, which may be partially due to Draft Kings and FanDuel. [May 7, 2019–57 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Overcast | Stitcher | Website Link

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Colby Donovan

Colby Donovan

Here to bring you podcast suggestions. Twitter → @colby__donovan

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