Colby Donovan

May 16, 2021

3 min read

Pods & Recs: No. 167

Today we have Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman with an overview of his new book, the bull case for Ethereum, and Kathryn Kaminski on trend-following, managed futures and crisis alpha.

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Investing

Behind The Markets Podcast Special: Ethereum, The Triple Halving with Squish Chaos. In this special episode, Jeremy Schwartz and Corey Hoffstein are joined by Nikhil Shamapant to discuss his paper on why he’s bullish on Ethereum in the near-term. He begins with an overview of the Bitcoin halving, and then dives into how a few things happening with Ethereum mirror the result of the Bitcoin halving. He argues the reduction in sell pressure for Ethereum may roughly equate to all three Bitcoin halving events.[May 7, 2021–1 hour, 7minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link

The Derivative: The NON-Wisdom of Crowds with Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners. Koulajain is a CTA and Founder & CIO of $1.8 Billion Quest Partners. He walks through his journey to become a CTA, what it’s like to run over a $1 billion, and then spends a lot of time on why managers optimizing for a high Sharpe Ratio leads to a greater chance of tail risk. He also spends a lot of time on meditation and why it’s helped him so much personally and professionally. [May 6, 2021–1 hour, 31 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link

People I (Mostly) Admire: 27. Daniel Kahneman on Why Our Judgment is Flawed — and What to Do About It. Nobel laureate & author Daniel Kahneman discusses topics covered in his new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, which focuses on the variability of errors in decision-making between individuals. The example he provides is an insurance company he consulted with, which thought there would be ~10% variability in judgements for claims payouts by different adjustors analyzing identical information, but it was actually 50%, costing them $2 billion per year. Kahneman talks about best practices for large judgement problems, how this problem manifests within both the criminal justice system and job interviews, and broad thoughts on the intersection of psychology and economics .[May 14, 2021–44 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link

The Meb Faber Show

The Meb Faber Show: #309 — Andrew Horowitz, Horowitz & Company — I Think We’re Starting To See A Little Bit Of What Happens When The Tide Goes Out. Andrew Horowitz is President and Founder of Horowitz & Company and host of The Disciplined Investor Podcast. In today’s episode, we start with Andrew’s investment framework. We talk about the tradeoff between active management and ETF’s with both stocks and bonds. Then he discusses the impact of fund flows on stocks, what he thinks about current valuations, and the importance of helping clients have a long-term investment horizon. [May 10, 2021–1 hour, 12 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link

The Meb Faber Show: #310 — Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex — When You’re A Systematic Investor, Your Process Makes The Decision. Kathryn Kaminski is Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, where she’s also the co-portfolio manager for the firm’s Managed Futures Strategy. Kathryn is the person who coined that phrase ‘crisis alpha’ in regard to trend following. She begins by sharing what it was like for her to study at MIT under the legendary Andrew Lo. Then she explains why trend following works during a crisis and uses last year as an example. Towards the end, Kathryn explains some misconceptions about trend following and talks about why it’s so important to have a process driven investment approach. [May 12, 2021–57 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link

RECOMMENDATIONS

Books

Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Prize Winning Economist):

  1. Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari