Today we have Jeremy Grantham and Ben Inker on market bubbles, Howard Lindzon and Jason Calacanis about the convergence of private and public markets, and a hilarious conversation between Conan O’Brien and Bryan Cranston.
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Masters in Business: Ben Inker on Value and Asset Allocation. Inker is the head of asset allocation at GMO and compares the current market behavior to 1999, a time when GMO was steadfast that bubble behavior was rampant. Then he talks about GMO’s famous 7-year forecast and the rationale for projecting negative real returns in the U.S. over that time period, while remaining bullish on emerging markets. He also dives into the underperformance of value compared to growth and why he expects mean reversion to shrink the spread between the two. He finishes by elaborating on how exactly value is defined in 2021 and what he thinks about the high flying growth stocks like Zoom, Google and Facebook. [February 12, 2021–1 hour, 13 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
The evidence of the froth is everywhere around us. We are seeing stuff every bit as crazy, and in some ways even more inexplicable than some of the stuff we saw in the internet bubble.
The extraordinary returns that you can get periodically in emerging [markets] do not tend to come when things are good and become great; they come when things are absolutely horrible and become merely bad.
This Week In Startups: Howard Lindzon on public vs. private investing psychology, “great unbundling” of index funds, Robinhood & more. Lindzon and Calacanis have a broad conversation about the convergence of public and private markets and why Lindzon thinks hedge fund managers have handled the convergence of the two better than VC’s. They also touch on the rise of SPACs and why Chamath Palihapitiya found a niche in the market. Then they get into issues with the accreditation rules which prevent people from investing in private companies, but allow them to incinerate their money with options on Robinhood, which is the last topic they discuss (and they both were very early investors in the company). [February 10, 2021–1 hour, 13 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
Superinvestors and the Art of Wordly Wisdom: #40: Grant Williams On Focusing On What’s Important. Williams talks about his transition to step away from Real Vision and starting a new podcast and paid subscription. After the first 25 minutes, he talks about current events, starting with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Then he talks about his ‘End Game’ podcast around whether there will be inflation or deflation in the future, which he thinks is the most important thing to figure out for your portfolio right now. His concern/expectation is for inflation and currency deflation coming in late 2021. He finishes the episode with the changes going on in the world in regards to geopolitical issues. [February 10, 2021 — 1 hour, 4 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
Infinite Loops: Naufal Sanaullah — Macro, Psychology & Charity. Sanaullah is the Chief Macro Strategist at EIA All Weather Alpha Partners and has a wide-ranging conversation with host Jim O’Shaughnessy. He begins with how he managed his portfolio through 2020 as COVID-19 impacted the markets and what his predictions are for what structural changes will remain in place as we get back to normal. Then he talks about his framework for thinking about market liquidity, which is deeper than just looking at M1/M2. He also talks about the importance of being open-minded, seeking out disconfirming information, leveraging Twitter for mentorship, and what his charitable work has been focused on. [February 11, 2021–1 hour, 4 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
The Meb Faber Show
***Must Listen*** The Meb Faber Show: #286 — Jeremy Grantham, GMO — What Day Is The Highest Level Of Optimism? It’s The Day The Market Hits The Peak. Grantham is the co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist of GMO and well-known for his thoughts around various bubbles. He starts by talking about the current market, which he believes will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, and puts this bubble into historical perspective by comparing it to the Japanese, technology, and housing bubbles. Then he addresses the commonly cited argument that low interest rates justify high stock valuations. Next he explains why he is so bullish on venture capital and has allocated almost 60% of his foundation to the asset class, making it, as he says, one of the most aggressive portfolios in the philanthropic world. Finally, he explains why he is so passionate about addressing climate change through his foundation, and why China is ahead of the U.S. to address the issue. [February 8, 2021–1 hour, 20 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
The Meb Faber Show: #287 — Jonathan Hsu, Tribe Capital — Our Specific Areas Of Expertise Are Around Being Able To Tell A Story Utilizing Your Own Data. Hsu is the co-founder and General Partner at Tribe Capital, a venture capital firm focused on using product and data science to engineer N-of-1 companies and investments. Tribe tries to use a quantitative approach to venture capital investing in a way that hasn’t been done before. He talks about his prior stops at both Facebook and Social Capital and how lessons from each helped lead into Tribe’s strategy. He elaborates on how Tribe Capital leverages their data science capabilities to assess the product-market fit for companies to invest from the seed stage to late stage. He talks about their investments in Slack and Carta from this perspective as well. [February 10, 2021–57 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
Conan O’Brien Needs A Friend: Bryan Cranston. Conan and Cranston have a hilarious conversation about Cranston’s entire career. Cranston talks about struggling early on in life which enabled him to become the man and actor he is today. He talks about his early career, which started slow with appearances on The X-Files and Friends, before he played Walter White and blew up on Breaking Bad. [February 1, 2021–1 hour, 12 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
Ben Inker (Head of Asset Allocation, GMO):