Pods & Recs: No. 153
Today we have Chamath Palihapitiya on what makes him tick, Carson Block on his thoughts on recent short-selling news, and Adam Grant with an overview of his new book, Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know.
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Invest Like The Best: Chamath Palihapitiya — The Major Problems Facing the World. Chamath is the founder and CEO of Social Capital, whose mission is to advance humanity by solving the world’s hardest problems. He’s also become well known for his utilization of SPACs over the past year to take numerous companies public. This is one of his more personal and open episodes he’s done — he starts with his humble beginnings and where his views around money stem from. Then he talks about the problems he’s most concerned about — helping eliminate the income inequality gap, creating paths for those born in the lower class to feel as though they move up the ladder in life, and tackling climate change. [February 2, 2021–1 hour, 6 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
Value Hive Podcast: Emerging Markets, Alternative Assets & Worldly Wisdom w/ Tiho Brkan. Brkan is a private investor managing a family office and self-described individual thinker. He provides his view on a lot of different asset classes he’s bullish on, including litigation finance, luxury London real estate, UK mezz-debt, and cannabis. He also hits on why he is bearish on the U.S. but very bullish Asia. [January 29, 2021–2 hours, 2 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker
Real Vision: Finance, Business & The Global Economy: Legal Fraud vs. Intellectual Fraud: The Growing Challenges Activist Short Sellers Face. Block is CIO of Muddy Waters Capital and talks all about the different forms of fraud going on in corporate America. He also talks about shorting in context of 2021’s events with $GME and wsb, what actually happened compared to the common narrative, and why risk management is essential to avoid being crushed like Melvin Capital. He also talks the impact of passive flows on shorting and how he can’t short a company that’s going to continually experience inflows over time. Then he talks about his American Tower ($AMT) short he started in 2013 and what went wrong (it’s up 3x since then). [February 4, 2021–47 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
So really, the question a lot of people ask is, well, what the f*ck good are all of these PhD’s in finance and economics if they can’t foresee this?
The Meb Faber Show
The Meb Faber Show: #284 — Michael Gayed, Toroso Investments — I Don’t Know The Exact Mile Marker I Might Crash My Car, But I Do Know The Conditions That Favor The Accident. Gayed is a PM at Toroso Investments, where he runs two tactical strategies. He is also the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report. He offers ideas on how investors can use indicators to determine when to go risk-on or risk-off, specifically the utilities sector and lumber vs. gold. Each indicator helps determine if we’re in an inflationary or deflationary environment. He provides the rationale for why these indicators work and explains how he uses them with his own strategies, helping him return over 70% in 2020 in his ATAC fund.[February 1, 2021–59 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
The Meb Faber Show: #285 — Best Idea Show — David Marcus, Evermore Global Advisors — Do You Sell Things That You Like To Buy Things That You Now Love? This is a great episode on special situations in Europe. David Marcus is the CIO of Evermore Global and has historically focused on Europe. He says now is the best environment to invest in special situations in Europe he has ever seen. He explains why he thinks it is finally time for the European market to perform well for multiple reasons. Then he runs through some of his portfolio, including companies involved in spinoffs, restructurings, and breakups. [February 3, 2021–1 hour, 13 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link
The Moment with Brian Koppelman: Adam Grant — 02/02/01. Koppelman talks with UPenn professor and best-selling author Adam Grant about his new book, Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know, which is about the danger of being closed minded rather than open to adjusting our views as time goes by and we’re exposed to new data. He looks at studies involving Yankees & Red Sox fans, why the idea of ‘strong beliefs loosely held’ isn’t as great as he once thought, and the different ways we can become more open to both new ideas and recalibrating our own ideas over time.[February 2, 2021–60 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker
The Decision Education Podcast: Episode 001: Base Rates and Bees (with Michael Mauboussin). Mauboussin is the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and talks in depth about the importance of base rates. He touches on what they are and why you should use a reference class when making tough choices. He also explains the benefit of keeping a decision journal to calibrate yourself over time. Then he talks about the idea of explore vs. exploit — when an environment is changing, you need to explore; when an environment is stable, you exploit. Finally, he talks about the idea that the reason people can achieve greatness is because they ignore base rates — if you only did something based on odds of success compared to others, no one would ever try to be a professional athlete, become an entrepreneur, or open a restaurant. [February 4, 2021–42 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Breaker | Website Link