Today we have The Leuthold Groups’ CIO on future market expectations, Nassim Taleb‘s thoughts on COVID-19, and an overview of the cannabis investing landscape.

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Business

The Meb Faber Show: #241 — Doug Ramsey, The Leuthold Group — By Our Interpretation, We’re There, I Do Think It’s Time To Be Rotating Away From Large Cap Growth. Ramsey is Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund. He talks a lot about market expectations and how The Leuthold Group is thinking about positioning going forward. After giving his somber 10-year market forecast, he talks about growth vs. value, how the U.S. and especially large-caps are expensive historically, why he’s bullish on precious metals, and what he thinks the impact of the upcoming election may be. [July 29, 2020–1 hour, 2 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

EconTalk: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Pandemic. Investor, philosopher, and author Nassim Taleb joins the episode to provide a masterclass on how to frame decision making in unpredictable times. He talks about risk management and statistics, how to frame decisions when dealing with fat tails, and why he felt early on that people weren’t thinking about the potential impact of the virus in the correct manner since they were thinking multiplicative and not exponential. He explains how we should handle the next pandemic and what his thoughts are on the mask debate the U.S. seems to be having. [July 27, 2020–1 hour, 7 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

If there’s a 1% risk the water has the bubonic plague in it, you don’t drink 1% of it and say, ‘Well, it’s probably good.’

Flirting with Models: Cliff Asness ‘ “…But Not So Open Your Mind Falls Out.” Asness is the co-founder and managing partner at AQR and finishes the season of Flirting with Models (check the episodes out if you haven’t listened). He covers a lot that he doesn’t cover on most episode appearances — what he learned during the tech bubble, how he thinks about his investment process and principles, where he’s changed his mind during his career, and what he thinks about using the word ‘discretionary’ when describing an investment process. And of course, he talks about how cheap value is and that it isn’t a bad time to sin a little! [July 29, 2020–1 hour] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker

The decision in investing is almost always the same. It’s never ‘Do I believe this?’ That’s binary. It’s ‘How much do I believe this and how important is it?’

Lindzanity with Howard Lindzon: Todd Harrison of CB1 Capital on the future of cannabis — Panic with friends. Harrison is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of CB1 Capital, a firm focused on investing in the growth of the cannabis space in the U.S., and he joins the episode to provide his view on the cannabis space and why he’s so bullish moving forward. He starts with the current layout of the industry after the 93% decline it recently experienced and then provides his bull thesis going forward, which doesn’t include the upside possibilities of an all blue-government. He also explains why COVID is actually going to accelerate the trend towards cannabis legalization since states and municipalities are going to face large budget deficits in the future. [July 29, 2020–50 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

Lindzanity with Howard Lindzon: Web Smith of 2PM on eCommerce and DTC — Panic with friends. This is a great listen about DTC companies and their impact on multiple industries. Web Smith is the founder of 2PM and a big proponent of eCommerce and DTC brands. He talks about his background, working for DTC company Rogue Fitness, later starting men’s shirt brand Mizzen+Main, and then creating 2PM. His current firm provides operator driven content to generate cash he uses to invest in DTC brands. He talks a lot about why DTC companies are able to scale so quickly, how and why they are disrupting industries (think Mirror and Lululemon), and what to expect going forward. [July 26, 2020–1 hour, 6 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

The Pomp Podcast: 340: Greg Isenberg On Building Consumer Internet Products. This is a really fun episode that starts with Isenberg’s background and turns into a business-idea brain storm between Pomp and Isenberg. Isenberg is the Founder of Late Checkout and a Growth Advisor to TikTok. He previously built and sold a number of technology companies, including acquisitions by Stumbleupon and WeWork. After talking about his background and time spent at WeWork, he explains Late Checkout builds and acquires internet businesses. That leads into their business-idea brain storm. which talks about the unbundling of Reddit and Fiverr, why Joe Rogan could’ve made a better business decision than sign with Spotify, and how to leverage influencers for business like Jocko Willink has. [July 20, 2020–1 hour, 5 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

The Meb Faber Show: #240 — Stefan Batory, Booksy — This Is Probably The Last Major Vertical That’s Not Digitized…And This Is A Massive Space. Batory is co-founder and CEO of Booksy, a mobile tool that allows customers to book appointments (mostly for hair and beauty shops). It’s the number one scheduling app for hair and beauty in eight countries. He talks about the process of opening in multiple markets and later deciding to shut down certain markets to focus on the U.S., U.K., Brazil, and Poland. He explains how they have been able to experience so much growth, what their value proposition is to salon owners, and how 2020 has been a struggle with COVID and initially thinking they’d go out of business. [July 27, 2020–54 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

Money For the Rest of Us: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation. This episode is a great overview of the three primary approaches to asset allocation. After talking about the idea of saving for retirement and trying to handle both sequence and longevity risk, he talks about the three different types and their individual pros and cons. The three main types are: 1) role-based permanent portfolio: each asset is expected to perform differently under different scenarios, 2) strategic portfolio mix: have a formal target allocation to each and do periodic rebalancing, and 3) adaptive asset garden portfolio: use multiple asset classes that are diversified but don’t have a target allocation for each (you add and remove asset classes as conditions change). [July 22, 2020–25 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

The Rest

The Psychology Podcast with Scott Barry Kaufman: 205: Robert Sutton on Good Leaders vs. Bad Leaders. The leadership topics discussed in this episode are really good and all stem from the guests’ recent article called 15 Things I Believe. Sutton is a Professor of Organizational Behavior at Stanford and author of multiple books including The No Asshole Rule: Building a Civilized Workplace and Surviving One That Isn’t. You’ll enjoy this — check out some of my favorite topics he discusses below. [July 30, 2020–1 hour, 1 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

  • Sometimes the best management is no management at all — first do no harm!
  • Fight as if you are right; listen as if you are wrong.
  • Kurt Vonnegut was right. It is often more constructive to tell yourself “I have enough” than to keep asking how you can get more and more and more. I don’t believe that people who die with the most money, fancy stuff, power, or prestige win the game of life.

The Efficient Coach: Damian Hughes on The Barcelona Way, Unlocking the DNA of a Winning Culture. Hughes is a business and athletic consultant who specializes in the creation of high-performing cultures. He also wrote the book The Barcelona Way: How to Create a Winning Team, which is the focus of this conversation. He explains how Barcelona has created such a strong culture, how coaches can help strengthen the culture over time, and how to handle players who are your best performers on the field but don’t fit within the culture you’ve built. [April 30, 2020–44 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google

The question is are those leaders (players on your team), cultural architects or are they cultural assassins? Because they’re the ones who lead when no coach is in the room.

This Week in Startups: E1085: Chris Atoki shares his inspiring story: from homeless to homeowner in 4 years through grit, technology & hustle. If the world had more people like Atoki, we would all be better off. He went from being homeless to learning how to code and getting a job that allowed him to purchase a house. His story includes going to school from 9a-3p and working from 7p-7a, losing his job, having to drop out of school and becoming homeless. He then found out about Lambda School and enrolled while using his phone as a hotspot to do the classwork at his job in a mattress store. This is a must-listen about someone who is both an inspiration and had no excuses as he navigated life. [July 17, 2020–1 hour, 6 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

The Tim Ferriss Show: #448 — Brad Feld — The Art of Unplugging, Carving Your Own Path, and Riding the Entrepreneurial Rollercoaster. Feld is a long time entrepreneur, investor, and co-founder of the Foundry Group. He’s also the founder of Techstars and author of two new books: The Startup Community Way and the second edition of Startup Communities. The episode is less about investing and more about handling the highs and lows of life as an entrepreneur. He talks a lot about his philosophy for life, handling his anxiety and depression during his career, trying to be a better husband, and handling the pulls of being a high performer professionally while being a good family man. He’s incredibly open and honest about his own struggles.[July 23, 2020–2 hours, 31 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link

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